Thinking in probabilities!

One of the life hacks or mental models I love is to think in terms of probabilities; this is certainly not an original idea of mine and is made quite famous by Elon Musk.

"I think of the future as branching probability streams" - Elon Musk

To evaluate an idea or an investment based on the probability of its possibilities in the future. Thinking about possible outcomes frees the mind from taking a religious Yes or No judgment and encourages you to reason from all sides.

The ideas that operate at a quantum level, where reality is a density of probabilities, are also applicable in the Newtonian world, especially when you need to forecast outcomes of complex systems.

Another way this mindset helps us to do things is to increase the probability of the outcomes we want to see, for example, changing your career or looking for a new job. Show up at a conference or sign up for a newsletter. These are often low-effort things that you can do, often dispassionately, that collectively increase your chances while procrastinating more significant items.

James Clear has put this brilliantly in "Atomic Habits "- "Every action you take is a vote for the type of person you wish to become. "

It takes a bit of practice before it becomes second nature; I still struggle to avoid jumping into judgment without thinking through the probability of outcomes.